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Part I of this book offers a look at the “big picture” in foreign exchange (forex)
trading, that is, what forces influence currency price movements. These forces are
accepted by economists around the world as responsible for changes in the value
of currencies. The person learning to trade forex or trying to improve his or her trading
will benefit from a gain of knowledge of these fundamentals. In fact, as you will see,
fundamental forces act as leading indicators of currency movement.
U.S. and global interest rates, economic growth, and market sentiment toward the
dollar are the key ingredients that shape trading opportunities. Part I provides basic
knowledge on how these factors impact forex prices and how they can be used in selecting
trading opportunities.


The Fundamentals
of Forex

We begin in this chapter with an exploration of the forces that move the prices:
the fundamentals. The reader will learn why fundamentals are important to foreign
exchange (forex) traders as well as what kind of economic activity are
most important in affecting price movements. These include interest rates, interest rate
differentials, economic growth, and sentiment regarding the U.S. dollar.
WHY FUNDAMENTALS ARE IMPORTANT
In many ways, forex trading is similar to playing a game. You have an opponent (the
market). In game of chance the key feature is that everyone faces the same odds
and therefore the same level of information. In these games, no player can change
the odds.
Playing forex, however, is not a game of odds. Participants in forex trading do not
share the same amount of information. In forex, this asymmetry of information results in
advantages and disadvantages to trades. Some players have more information than the
others. In forex, information about fundamental aspects of economies does not arrive
simultaneously to all participants. The real important question is what kind of knowledge
and information can improve trading performance. The search for an edge starts with a
fundamental understanding of the nature of the forex market. Having a foundation of
knowledge in fundamentals is a first step in evolving into a winning trader.


trading forex article:

foreign exchange markets the Fastest-Growing of Our Time




from : trading forex
http://sciencegate.blogspot.com/2011/05/trading-trading-forex-blog-trading.html

mardi 10 mai 2011

trader forex: fundamental analysis forex



Who remembers when fundamental analysis was considered the only real or proper way to make
trading decisions? When I started trading in 1978, technical analysis was used by only a handful of
traders, who were considered by the rest of the market community to be, at the very least, crazy. As
difficult as it is to believe now, it wasn't very long ago when Wall Street and most of the major funds
and financial institutions thought that technical analysis was some form of mystical hocus-pocus.
Now, of course, just the opposite is true. Almost all experienced traders use some form of technical
analysis to help them formulate their trading strategies. Except for some small, isolated pockets in the
academic community, the "purely" fundamental analyst is virtually extinct. What caused this dramatic
shift in perspective? I'm sure it's no surprise to anyone that the answer to this question is very simple:
Money! The problem with making trading decisions from a strictly fundamental perspective is the
inherent difficulty of making money consistently using this approach.
For those of you who may not be familiar with fundamental analysis, let me explain. Fundamental
analysis attempts to take into consideration all the variables that could affect the relative balance or
imbalance between the supply of and the possible demand for any particular stock, commodity, or
financial instrument. Using primarily mathematical models that weigh the significance of a variety of
factors (interest rates, balance sheets, weather patterns, and numerous others), the analyst projects what
the price should be at some point in the future.
The problem with these models is that they rarely, if ever, factor in other traders as variables. People,
expressing their beliefs and expectations about the future, make prices move—not models. The fact that
a model makes a logical and reasonable projection based on all the relevant variables is not of much
value if the traders who are responsible for most of the trading volume are not aware of the model or
don't believe in it.
As a matter of fact, many traders, especially those on the floors of the futures exchanges who have the
ability to move prices very dramatically in one direction or the other, usually don't have the slightest
concept of the fundamental supply and demand factors that are supposed to affect prices. Furthermore,
at any given moment, much of their trading activity is prompted by a response to emotional factors that
are completely outside the parameters of the fundamental model. In other words, the people who trade
(and consequently move prices) don't always act in a rational manner.


More Article : 

The psychology of successful forex trading part 1


vendredi 6 mai 2011

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